An extension program that assisted growers in South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales to better understand and interpret seasonal climate forecasts has been found to improve farm productivity
A GRDC investment that provided growers and their advisers with regular access to improved seasonal forecast information – and the confidence to use the data – has demonstrated a measurable lift in farm productivity.
The investment – titled ‘Increasing grower and adviser capacity and confidence in seasonal forecasting’ – was a three-year GRDC initiative undertaken with Victoria’s former Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions.
The investment involved the development of several communication tools, including a seasonal forecast newsletter, videos and webinars, to help growers and advisers better understand and use forecasting services in farm management decisions. Ninety-seven per cent of the 4000 growers and advisers surveyed about the impact of this investment reported an improved understanding of weather forecasting.
This was found to result in an estimated $1.15 per hectare average gain (equivalent to a yield increase of 0.1 per cent and a cost decrease of 0.1 per cent) to southern region and southern New South Wales growers who used this information.
The challenge
Australia experiences some of the world’s most variable climatic conditions – drought, floods, cyclones, heatwaves and frost. These extremes have a profound influence on agriculture, and especially on farm decision-making.
Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) provide growers and their advisers with an opportunity to better match farm decisions to pending climatic conditions. These include being able to make better-informed decisions about which crops and varieties to sow, stocking rates and likely risks from weeds, pests and diseases.
The economic benefit of SCFs, however, is closely tied to their accuracy.
Studies of the value of SCFs in reducing climate-related agricultural productivity risks found that forecast accuracy is often low and highly variable. Among the factors causing this unreliability are forecasting skill and resolution. This resulted in low grower confidence in SCF models.
Growers, advisers and industry stakeholders needed regular access to improved seasonal forecast information.
The response
Dale Grey, of Agriculture Victoria, has been producing monthly climate updates and model summaries – called ‘The Fast Break’ – for Victorian grain growers since 2008. There is also a YouTube channel called ‘The Very Fast Break’.
GRDC invested to extend ‘The Fast Break’ to South Australia, Tasmania and southern New South Wales. Between the financial years 2020 and 2023, a variety of customised seasonal forecast products were produced.
These included:
- 88 Fast Break monthly seasonal forecast e-newsletters;
- 57 Very Fast Break monthly YouTube summary videos;
- 26 webinars with in-depth seasonal update and forecast outlooks; and
- an update of a guide for growers using seasonal forecasts in south-eastern Australia.
This project built on the successful seasonal forecast extension project DAV1803-010SAX (‘Using seasonal forecasts’, 2018–20).
The impact
This investment provided growers and agronomists with SCF products that supplied expert interpretation of climate signals, including:
- a summary of 12 seasonal forecast models, including details on the relative skill of each forecast (a measure of how well a forecast performs over a historical baseline) for the time of the year and region;
- a review of previous monthly forecasts, updated with actual weather developments;
- probability of rainfall and temperatures based on a selection of predictions from the most relevant and reliable climate models; and
- links to available soil moisture information and historical climate records for relevant locations.
All communications included key take-home messages for growers and their advisers.
Feedback from about 4000 growers and agronomists identified high satisfaction with this extension program. Between 86 per cent (in 2021) and 89 per cent (in 2023) of users ‘strongly agreed’ that The Fast Break products improved their ability to manage seasonal risk.
An independent cost-benefit analysis by the University of Western Australia found that this GRDC investment had a valuable and enduring educational benefit when it came to interpreting seasonal forecasts. This was found to translate into productivity gains through improved risk management.
The analysis found that a 0.1 per cent yield increase could be attributed to improved risk management, along with a 0.1 per cent decrease in costs. This was worth, on average, $1.15/ha across South Australia, Tasmania and southern NSW.
Overall, this $755,480 investment returned benefits with an estimated value of $1.49 million – a benefit-cost ratio of 1.97.
More information: GRDC’s ‘Delivering impact’ case studies.
Resources: The Fast Break – Victoria website and The Very Fast Break YouTube channel.