More than half of Australia's extra grain production in 2030 will be consumed within the domestic market, according to analysis from the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (AEGIC).
The Centre's chief economist Professor Ross Kingwell says Australian growers will be producing an additional 5.5 million metric tonnes of grain by 2030* - an increase of more than 11 per cent compared to trend production of 49 million tonnes in 2017-18.
His findings are outlined in the recently-released AEGIC report 'Australia's Grain Outlook 2030'.
Only about half of the additional grain will be available for export, with the rest going straight to the Australian market - mostly for animal feed.
"In little over a decade, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million, a jump of almost 5 million people," Professor Kingwell says.
"This will cause a big increase in domestic grain demand for feed and food.
"And with 75 per cent of Australia's consumers currently living in eastern Australia, almost all of the extra grain produced in the eastern states will be consumed in those eastern states."
Extra grain available
By 2030, Professor Kingwell says between 2.4 and 2.8 million tonnes of extra grain will be available for export nationwide.
"Most of this will come from the less-populous states of Western Australia and South Australia," he says.
"Export demand in key international grain markets is projected to increase, so we expect the extra grain will find a home."
Professor Kingwell says Australia's increased grain production in 2030 will stem from growers successfully increasing their crop yields in a volatile and changing climate.
Export demand in key international grain markets is projected to increase, so we expect the extra grain will find a home.
"The area planted to crops is not likely to increase towards 2030, so yield increases aided by the skill of farmers, researchers and advisers will be crucial," Professor Kingwell says.
NOTE: *AEGIC predicts an additional 5.65 million metric tonnes of grain will be produced in Australia by 2030, increasing from recent production of 49 million tonnes in 2017-18 to 54.6 million tonnes in 2030.
GRDC Research Code AEG00006
More information: Ross Kingwell, AEGIC, 08 6168 9900, email@example.com
Useful resources: 'Australia's Grain Outlook 2030' report:www.aegic.org.au.
AEGIC is an initiative of GRDC and the Western Australian State Government.